I don’t usually throw out bold claims, and the subject of this post is no different. Since registering for Vineman 70.3 back in November 2013, I knew it would be my first of two A-races for 2014 and my tune up race before Ironman Lake Tahoe. Despite the small setback I experienced at Wildflower Long Course, I’ve made major progress in all three sports this season; I will break 5:30 on Sunday. Here’s how:

The Swim: I’ve mentioned this many times before, but the swim simply does not give me a lot of bang for my buck. Although my swim times have steadily improved and I recently swam a sub-25 pool mile, the swim won’t be the reason why I break 5:30. Instead, I’m going to play to my strength and swim easy – effectively treating it as an extended warmup for a massive effort on the bike. Goal: sub-36 minute swim.

The Bike: Plain and simple – I’m taking no prisoners on Sunday. After throwing down a 22mph average at Vineman Monte Rio and a 2:45 at the course preview ride (without race wheels), I’m going to hit it hard on Sunday and improve on the course ride. I’m aiming high – Goal: sub 2:45 bike.

The Run: This will be the biggest question mark come Sunday. Vineman is traditionally a very warm race where temperatures occasionally exceed 100 degrees. Although the forecast on Sunday is calling for a high of 87, I’m used to much cooler temperatures in SF. My fastest 70.3 run split stands at 1:59 – I’ve since lost 15 pounds and run a 1:37 open half marathon, and I’m confident that I can make a big dent in that time – heat aside. Goal: sub 1:50 run.

Putting it all together, if I hit all of my goals spend under 6 minutes in transition, I will finish sub 5:20. My current PR stands at 5:44 on what was definitely a more difficult course than Vineman when I wasn’t training for Ironman. Knowing that long courses rarely go off without a hitch, I gave myself a buffer that should still leave enough room to break 5:30 in style. Game on!